The Paradox of Technological Advancement
How societies sow the seeds of their own demise through technology
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“Modern civilization believes that it commands the historical process with technological power. Allied to capitalist markets that foster continual innovation, this power will allow it to overcome the challenges I identify and thereby escape the common fate of all previous civilizations. No longer bound by the past, or so we think, our future is infinitely bright.”
— William Ophuls, Immoderate Greatness: Why Civilizations Fail
Why do civilizations rise and fall? With an average life span of 250 years, history has witnessed numerous societies reach the peak of their technological, cultural and political development only to be swept aside and replaced. Civilizations are complex systems with a number of intertwined parameters operating on decades-long time frames, making it exceedingly difficult to identify causes of decay.
In Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive, Jared Diamond outlines several contributors to societal collapse including deforestation, habitat destruction, water problems and population growth. However, as the author explains, none of these are enough on their own and a combination of factors is usually the culprit. Factors that are often identified only when the wheels of collapse are turning at full speed.
Nevertheless, a civilization’s rise and collapse can be viewed through the lens of technology. No society worthy of being branded as civilization has existed that was not technologically advanced. After all, what defines a civilization? Centralization, growth, taxation, writing, agriculture, domestication, information flow, architecture, population growth; all things rooted in technology. Yet, as a civilization increasingly relies on technology, environmental exploitation surges.
Imagine the following. Man has always been on the lookout for how to make his life easier and more comfortable. He soon realized that this could be achieved by using technology to more efficiently convert natural sources into whatever he needs. As this continued, civilizations grew and more resources were available, fueling the growth in population. This growth created new problems, which were resolved through human ingenuity and new technologies.1 However, as this process continued, easily available natural resources were consumed and more complex technologies were developed to reach those that were more difficult to access. Unavoidably, a moment came when technology stopped delivering and the civilization accelerated toward its own ruin. For a civilization to prosper, technological innovation must remain high.
It appears that civilization and environmental exploitation go hand-in-hand. The more technology is used to exploit the environment, the more abundant the resources and the more the population grows. But natural resources are limited, and since larger populations consume more from their environment, it creates a damning loop where the seeds of civilizational decline are sown.
According to William Ophuls, technology and good management can delay the inevitable, but the day of reckoning will always come. Technology can be used to transform resources and energy into useful work, but it can never be used to create new energy or raw material sources. As these are being consumed, there is a clear trend toward diminishing returns. Resources, especially those that are easily accessible and usable, are limited and while they last, civilizations exist in a metastable state with their environment. Once these are consumed, the civilizational decline accelerates as less available resources require more complex technologies to be accessed.
By not considering the ecological costs of technological progress, societies unknowingly chart a path to their own demise. Technological innovation that considers its environmental impact is paramount for a thriving society. Even then, decline is just delayed, but never completely removed.
That’s all for now. Until next time 🔋!
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Technological advancement is akin to the myth of Perseus fighting Medusa. As you wrestle with nature and try to find answers, they usually come at a price of even more questions. As you develop a new technology to solve a specific problem, new problems are created.